Analytics
Yes is at 61.5%, down 8 points from 69.5% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 54.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 71.5%; a month before, 54.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 61% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “GPT Astra 6.1+: Output Token Price Debut?”.
$131.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.5K since listing. The order book holds $159.81, with a 9.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 78 trades, $920.2 bought Yes and $359.91 bought No.
The largest Yes position is KimchiCapital with 189 shares; the largest No position is Prize-Maybe with 405.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 12:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 69.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 61.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Prize-Maybe | No | 404.78 |
| KimchiCapital | Yes | 189.46 |
| superba | Yes | 122.78 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Standard” output token price, using the “Short context” rate, announced by OpenAI or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, Flex, Fast mode, Priority, long-context, cached, regional, and data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, including its official API pricing page (https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-output-token-price-debut
| K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE |
| Yes |
| 100 |
| 2B9S | No | 95 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 74.57 |
| gaaaydoggggg | Yes | 23.59 |
| UpTheStairs | No | 22.51 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 21 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 15.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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