Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 10 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 13 Oct 2026, the highest close was 24.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 13 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 13.7% on 11 Oct 2026. $24.5K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 7:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 5.87K |
| balthazar | Yes | 567.7 |
| Beneficial-Vertigo | Yes | 399.24 |
| Trained-Notion | Yes | 389.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026
| bZk0Uo | Yes | 191.69 |
| antistatic | Yes | 118.37 |
| etherealone | Yes | 103.9 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | Yes | 100.33 |
| asd56 | Yes | 100 |
| real-hero-himmel | Yes | 92.27 |
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