Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 39 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Jul 2026.
Across the 118 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 1 Aug 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points up, to 52% on 31 Jul 2026.
$1.1K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $221.18K since listing. The order book holds $21.92K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.44K bought Yes and $22.21K bought No; the largest was a $5.05K sell of No at 93.1¢.
The largest Yes position is denizz with 18K shares; the largest No position is efghvcdbjkpqwo with 13.1K. Ten wallets hold 68.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 11.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| denizz | Yes | 17.99K |
| efghvcdbjkpqwo | No | 13.11K |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 7.42K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify. Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border. Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify. Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by
| katbot |
| No |
| 5.84K |
| mountmckinley | No | 3.52K |
| melonmanm | Yes | 3.08K |
| Warren-Buffett | Yes | 3K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 2.57K |
| Outsid3rTrading | Yes | 2.5K |
| tetrase | Yes | 2.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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