Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 1.5 points from 8.5% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026, the highest close was 8.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7% on 29 Oct 2026.
$21.03K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.79K since listing. The order book holds $45.64K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 70 trades, $736.07 bought Yes and $4.71K bought No; the largest was a $1.52K sell of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is TinyRise with 7.8K shares; the largest No position is D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 92.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 2%–14%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TinyRise | Yes | 7.83K |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No | 2.78K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: - Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) - Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant - Being formally booked or processed following detention - Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station - Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney - Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention: - An arrest warrant being issued but not executed - Being questioned or interviewed without arrest - Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-arrested-before-2027
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
| No |
| 1K |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 1K |
| Aeglos | No | 780 |
| tetrase | No | 555 |
| Haradwaith | No | 552.84 |
| DREAMBIG. | No | 400 |
| lissartter | No | 396.74 |
| spacexstar | No | 396 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
