Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 22% on 17 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2025 to 29 Jan 2026, the highest close was 30% on 19 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 30% on 19 Dec 2025. $588.11K traded over the market's life.
149 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 11:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 17 Dec 2025 – 29 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2025 | 22.0% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ilovetwilight | Yes | 50K |
| Homely-Perpendicular | Yes | 37.22K |
| Haunting-Sprout | Yes | 27.32K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| DDDrant | Yes | 18.85K |
| terminathor | Yes | 16K |
| dontstopostap | Yes | 13.09K |
| Datallman | Yes | 11.39K |
| AlexRFW | Yes | 9.99K |
| domivarga | Yes | 8.6K |
| NotoriousTheOne | Yes | 8.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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