Analytics
Yes is at 16.2%, up 12 points from 3.7% when the market opened on 25 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 6.6% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 25 Oct 2026. The current quote, 16.2%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 6.3% on 30 Oct 2026.
360-379 ranks third of the 23 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?”. 340-359 leads at 25.2%; 320-339 is at 17.5%.
$9.06K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $25.1K since listing. The order book holds $7.03K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 452 trades, $992.9 bought Yes and $7.28K bought No; the largest was a $1.66K buy of No at 91.9¢.
The largest Yes position is dddtrips with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 32.1K. Ten wallets hold 79.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 25 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | 3.7% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.13K |
| dddtrips | Yes | 4.82K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 3.79K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026
11 more outcomes, none above 0.4%.
| Mei-ji |
| Yes |
| 3.69K |
| felipe69 | Yes | 2.6K |
| TweetPulse.Live | Yes | 2.4K |
| hulitest2025 | Yes | 2K |
| HappyPumba | Yes | 1.86K |
| AndreaPirlo | No | 1.81K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 1.58K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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