Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 4 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 15% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 7.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
280-299 ranks sixth of the 23 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?”. 340-359 leads at 25.3%; 320-339 is at 17.5%.
$10.6K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $35.85K since listing. The order book holds $7.73K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.14K bought Yes and $6.48K bought No.
The largest Yes position is dddtrips with 4.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 32.1K. Ten wallets hold 77.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.13K |
| dddtrips | Yes | 4.69K |
| Mei-ji | Yes | 3.69K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026
11 more outcomes, none above 0.4%.
| Bitgod |
| Yes |
| 3.52K |
| Poiuztrewq | Yes | 2.79K |
| TweetPulse.Live | Yes | 2.4K |
| blisni | No | 1.91K |
| hulitest2025 | Yes | 1.9K |
| CaprioDiLeo | Yes | 1.59K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 1.56K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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