Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 3 points from 12.5% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 9.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
300-319 ranks fifth of the 23 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?”. 340-359 leads at 25.1%; 360-379 is at 18%.
$11.04K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $29.58K since listing. The order book holds $4.76K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.81K bought Yes and $11.42K bought No; the largest was a $3.42K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is dddtrips with 7.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 33.1K. Ten wallets hold 79% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 33.09K |
| dddtrips | Yes | 7.92K |
| AndreaPirlo | No | 4.18K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026
11 more outcomes, none above 0.7%.
| Mei-ji |
| Yes |
| 3.69K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 3.06K |
| Poiuztrewq | Yes | 2.5K |
| TweetPulse.Live | Yes | 2.4K |
| LazyWanker | Yes | 2K |
| hulitest2025 | Yes | 1.9K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 1.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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