Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 4.9 points from 8.4% when the market opened on 25 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 3.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
320-339 ranks tenth of the 21 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?”. 380-399 leads at 14.2%; 400-419 is at 13.4%.
$19.33K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $44.16K since listing. The order book holds $6.23K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.39K bought Yes and $5.55K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Mei-ji with 3.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 36.2K. Ten wallets hold 75% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 25 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | 8.4% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 36.2K |
| Mei-ji | Yes | 3.69K |
| Bitgod | Yes | 2.9K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-27-november-3-2026
9 more outcomes, none above 1.5%.
| dddtrips |
| Yes |
| 2.67K |
| TweetPulse.Live | Yes | 2.4K |
| Poiuztrewq | Yes | 2K |
| felipe69 | Yes | 1.9K |
| hulitest2025 | Yes | 1.8K |
| sebyastiens | Yes | 1.48K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 1.4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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