Analytics
Yes is at 24.5%, down 27 points from 51% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 27% on 13 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Critical Discord Incident by...?”.
$898.74 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $37.28, with a 41.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is pootytherewardfarmer with 51 shares; the largest No position is GuyFromTinder with 120.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 51.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 24.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | No | 120 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 51 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 50 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents affecting Discord services or components will be considered. A 'Partial Outage' (orange) does not qualify. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first outage classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s outage classification to 'Major Outage' (red) will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or https://discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Discord’s “Partial Outage” classification is orange, while “Major Outage” is red. A Partial Outage does not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/critical-discord-incident-byptptpt-20260811190800464
| 2B9S |
| Yes |
| 18.83 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 18 |
| Aiden2006 | No | 14.99 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 4.67 |
| Chicken-little | Yes | 1.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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