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“Critical Discord Incident by October 31?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Critical Discord Incident by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Nov 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 27, 7:24 PM UTC, Yes trades at 39.0¢, a 39.0% implied chance, $613.34 traded in the last 24 hours, $71.78 resting in the order book, a 12.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 6 daily price points from Sep 23, 2026 UTC to Sep 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 31.0% and 65.5%); 9 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 36 recent public fills from 7 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 23 Sep 2026 – 27 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 63.0% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 39.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Termostating | No | 279.99 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 134.38 |
| StarMaster | Yes |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents affecting Discord services or components will be considered. A 'Partial Outage' (orange) does not qualify. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as a 'Major Outage' (red) when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first outage classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s outage classification to 'Major Outage' (red) will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Discord (for example, on discordstatus.com or https://discordstatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: Discord’s “Partial Outage” classification is orange, while “Major Outage” is red. A Partial Outage does not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/critical-discord-incident-byptptpt-20260811190800464
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 80 |
| beata-monalisa | Yes | 78.96 |
| Scoopdewhoop | Yes | 31.03 |
| frontiertrade | No | 30 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 14.39 |
| hping02 | Yes | 5 |
| ScottsRoad | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
