Analytics
Yes is at 66%, down 12 points from 77.5% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 80.5% on 27 Sep 2026 and the lowest 52.5% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62.5%; a month before, 74%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 62.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?”.
$1.25K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $159.89, with a 32.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 52 trades, $341.48 bought Yes and $142.72 bought No.
The largest Yes position is KiruaTrading with 164 shares; the largest No position is 2B9S with 42.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 77.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 66.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KiruaTrading | Yes | 164.21 |
| 2B9S | No | 41.88 |
| Carabao | No | 40 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-5pt6-output-token-price-debut
| Unequaled-Goal-Eyebrows |
| No |
| 40 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 23 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 21.63 |
| cigarettes | No | 20 |
| P9CJC4FYHW | No | 20 |
| balthazar | No | 0.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
