Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 8.5 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 29 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.8%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 6% on 26 Sep 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Claude Opus 5.6+: Output Token Price Debut?”.
$634.35 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $543.65, with a 3.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Numitus1994 with 168 shares; the largest No position is zctrading with 333.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zctrading | No | 333.11 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 168 |
| spxtest | No | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-opus-5pt6-output-token-price-debut
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 78.36 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 69.99 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 60 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 28 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 20 |
| 60523 | Yes | 20 |
| Costly-Swell | No | 11.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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