Analytics
Yes is at 21.5%, down 12 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
The high was 67% on 4 Jul 2026 and the low 11.5% on 29 Apr 2026. A week ago Yes was at 24%; a month ago, 30%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 19.5% on 24 Jul 2026.
$1.01K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.79K since listing. The order book holds $2.33K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 443 trades, $2.99K bought Yes and $5.5K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Bonimba with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is cc311 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 53.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 84 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 9, 5:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 220 points · 25 Feb 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 33.5% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/christine-lagarde-out-as-ecb-president-in-2026
| willsom |
| Yes |
| 889.6 |
| HandlePressure | No | 800 |
| Newshound | Yes | 691.35 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 653.96 |
| whiteflower | No | 618.08 |
| Cobalt Meteor E7D3 | No | 607.69 |
| Zaradka | No | 601.71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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