Analytics
Yes is at 32%, down 30 points from 61.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 3 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 32% on 25 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 46.5% on 24 Oct 2026.
October 31 ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “ChatGPT Outage by...?”. November 15 leads at 79.5%.
$520.02 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $52.2, with a 38.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is GuyFromTinder with 30 shares; the largest No position is pootytherewardfarmer with 40.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 3:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 61.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 40 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 30 |
| braindance | Yes | 30 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-outage-byptptpt-20261022
| AJSV |
| No |
| 30 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 20.02 |
| Blushing-Zipper | Yes | 20 |
| spxtest | Yes | 20 |
| bechamel | No | 20 |
| liverpoolfc | No | 20 |
| KimchiCapital | No | 10.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
