Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.2%. Yes opened at 65% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 8 Oct 2026, the highest close was 65.5% on 31 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 42.5% on 1 Sep 2026. $10.05K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 11:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 65.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DREAMBIG. | Yes | 1.84K |
| 5tghfh67fghfsdt4356g | Yes | 415.01 |
| beata-monalisa | Yes | 303.73 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/chatgpt-full-outage-by-august-31-20260715010037673
| BASSATS01 | Yes | 257.54 |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 125 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 87.79 |
| yessirskis | Yes | 70 |
| charay12 | Yes | 63 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 61.11 |
| qcp14 | Yes | 58.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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