Analytics
Yes is at 23.5%, down 9 points from 32.5% when the market opened on 31 Dec 2025.
Across the 291 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 18% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 28.5%; a month before, 30.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 35.5% on 3 Feb 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$309.16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $141.26K since listing. The order book holds $15.25K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $671.94 bought Yes and $5.42K bought No; the largest was a $1.23K sell of No at 58.5¢.
The largest Yes position is keasiyo with 27.2K shares; the largest No position is tryingmyluckhere with 13.9K. Ten wallets hold 82.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 291 points, 31 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2025 | 32.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| keasiyo | Yes | 27.16K |
| tryingmyluckhere | No | 13.89K |
| SongXiaoFeng | No | 5.93K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| XieGuangKun |
| No |
| 4.28K |
| 1-WIN | Yes | 2.77K |
| MaxEnt | No | 2.74K |
| icidark | Yes | 1.91K |
| SuperTests | No | 1.7K |
| bejoxbt | No | 1.58K |
| cryptoincome | No | 1.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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