Analytics
Yes is at 37.5%, down 43 points from 80% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 133 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82% on 16 Jun 2026 and the lowest 38% on 12 Oct 2026. The current quote, 37.5%, is below every close in that window; the latest close was 38.5% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.5%; a month before, 55.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 57% on 13 Jul 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$14.87K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $24.66K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 261 trades, $2.2K bought Yes and $2.56K bought No.
The largest Yes position is balthazar with 2.2K shares; the largest No position is MaxEnt with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 5:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 80.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 38.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| balthazar | Yes | 2.2K |
| MaxEnt | No | 1.3K |
| daweishashax | No | 1.22K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/base-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| sansui1 |
| No |
| 772.26 |
| Hyperlong | No | 692 |
| valera | Yes | 500 |
| arlongur | Yes | 499.99 |
| SuperTests | Yes | 441.06 |
| Quiet Beacon 7EAB | No | 425.76 |
| 0x49F206 | No | 420.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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