Analytics
Yes is at 84.5%, up 50 points from 34.5% when the market opened on 9 Jul 2026.
Across the 110 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 34.5% on 9 Jul 2026. The current quote, 84.5%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 78% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 64.5%; a month before, 70.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 61.5% on 10 Jul 2026.
$30 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.45K since listing. The order book holds $789.23, with a 9.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 119 trades, $1.45K bought Yes and $411.57 bought No.
The largest Yes position is chocolatepudding with 820 shares; the largest No position is 74-75 with 456. Ten wallets hold 88.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 110 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 34.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 78.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chocolatepudding | Yes | 820 |
| 74-75 | No | 456.03 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 271.47 |
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arizona-passes-ballot-measure-restricting-transgender-school-and-athletic-access-20260708183800539
| maritime6307 |
| No |
| 212 |
| TouchdownTerryDunk | Yes | 151.52 |
| johnashbough | No | 151.01 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 150 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 125.52 |
| Haradwaith | No | 84.85 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 56.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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