Another US bank failure by March 31?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$114.4K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 1 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2026 to 31 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 30.5% on 1 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 23.5% on 2 Feb 2026. $114.41K traded over the market's life.

89 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:08 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 1 Feb 2026 – 31 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Feb 2026	30.5%
31 Mar 2026	1.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
DonAntimatter	No	2.35K
tmyk	Yes	999.98
Crimson Raven 1ABA	No	764.86

10 of 89 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.