Analytics
Yes is at 97.4%, up 22 points from 75.5% when the market opened on 8 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 8 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.4% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 52% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 53.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 53.5% on 17 Oct 2026.
$1.28K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.15K, with a 4.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 21 trades, $787.2 bought Yes and $31.68 bought No.
The largest Yes position is johnsalchichon with 730 shares; the largest No position is LonelyScissors with 200. Ten wallets hold 92.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 6:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 8 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | 75.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 97.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| johnsalchichon | Yes | 730.36 |
| LonelyScissors | No | 200 |
| AJSV | No | 186.33 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's Codex experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Codex will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for Codex (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing Codex under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'ChatGPT,' 'FedRAMP,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not Codex, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The 'Codex in ChatGPT Desktop' component, listed under ChatGPT, is not part of Codex. This market will remain open until the December 31, 2026 status box is finalized and all incidents that began on that date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident's impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the December 31, 2026 status box is finalized or before all incidents that began on that date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the December 31, 2026 status box is finalized, provided no incident that began on that date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as "Resolved" and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-codex-outage-in-2026
| LovelyPanda |
| No |
| 133.33 |
| youtube-trader | No | 97 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 95.18 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 67.8 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 60 |
| VonVonagh | No | 50 |
| Romiche22 | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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