lava-lava

The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.

Market	Outcome	Shares	Observed price	Observed value	Position PnL
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	114.67K	0.5%	$630.66	-$1.96K
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	No	24.65K	28.0%	$6.9K	-$4.93K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	18.45K	50.5%	$9.32K	+$172.14
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?	Yes	17.4K	37.0%	$6.44K	+$1.29K
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	16.74K	13.9%	$2.33K	+$724.98
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	16.42K	16.5%	$2.71K	-$450.04
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	13.23K	15.5%	$2.05K	+$76.2
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?	Yes	12.06K	21.5%	$2.59K	+$65.21
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	11.92K	38.5%	$4.59K	+$1.71K
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	10.52K	18.5%	$1.95K	+$65.69
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Under	10.32K	8.0%	$825.55	-$2.26K
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	9.09K	19.0%	$1.73K	-$7.57
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?	Over	8.66K	11.0%	$952.86	-$2.22K
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?	CDU	8.34K	16.0%	$1.33K	-$1.19K
Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?	No	7.58K	24.5%	$1.86K	-$2.84K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	7.56K	49.5%	$3.74K	+$106.38
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	7.04K	7.5%	$528.11	-$29.83
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	No	7K	85.0%	$5.95K	+$575.49
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	6.77K	6.3%	$429.74	+$91.39
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	6.67K	3.1%	$209.97	-$145.52
Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	6.43K	24.0%	$1.54K	+$304.11
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	6.43K	82.0%	$5.27K	+$26.69
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	6.33K	34.5%	$2.18K	-$697.55
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?	Yes	5.92K	17.5%	$1.04K	+$240.86
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	5.68K	41.0%	$2.33K	-$1.23K

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