Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ECB rate hike in 2026?Yes | buy | 139.86 | $0.715 | $100 | Apr 9, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 1.7K |
| $0.147 |
| $250 |
| Feb 15, 2026 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 993.49 | $0.503 | $500 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 961.54 | $0.520 | $500 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 285.71 | $0.276 | $78.86 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 88.7 | $0.225 | $20 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 117.45 | $0.204 | $24 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 2K | $0.352 | $704.97 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.452 | $903.88 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 11.13K | $0.461 | $5.13K | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 285.71 | $0.350 | $100 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26?Up | buy | 200 | $0.500 | $100 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 129.87 | $0.770 | $100 | Jan 24, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 1.75K | $0.571 | $1K | Jan 24, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 1.26K | $0.396 | $500 | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.89K | $0.173 | $500 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 5.22K | $0.096 | $500 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.540 | $540 | Nov 19, 2025 |
 Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?Yes | buy | 911.11 | $0.549 | $500 | Sep 7, 2025 |
 Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.670 | $201 | Jul 13, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?Yes | buy | 404.11 | $0.850 | $343.49 | Jun 26, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JuneYes | buy | 100 | $0.290 | $29 | Jun 12, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?No | buy | 164.97 | $0.606 | $100 | Jun 12, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 300 | $0.850 | $255 | Jun 11, 2025 |
 Fed rate cut in 2025?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.750 | $225 | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.920 | $460 | Jun 11, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.880 | $264 | Jun 11, 2025 |
 US-EU trade agreement by July 9?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.560 | $112 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.593 | $177.93 | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Yes | buy | 47.72 | $0.590 | $28.15 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.470 | $94 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 115.27 | $0.500 | $57.64 | May 16, 2025 |
 Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Italy GP pole?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.460 | $18.4 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 244 | $0.528 | $128.84 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?Yes | buy | 220 | $0.819 | $180.15 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?Yes | buy | 6.75 | $0.818 | $5.52 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 0.29 | $0.560 | $0.16 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 99 | $0.558 | $55.23 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 17 | $0.490 | $8.33 | May 16, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?Yes | buy | 61 | $0.517 | $31.52 | May 16, 2025 |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix?Yes | buy | 1.49K | $0.336 | $500 | May 4, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.89K | $0.999 | $1.89K | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 4.96K | $0.207 | $1.03K | Dec 16, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 4.96K | $0.249 | $1.24K | Dec 12, 2024 |
 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?Yes | sell | 1.24K | $0.999 | $1.24K | Dec 12, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 460.06 | $0.840 | $386.45 | Dec 6, 2024 |
| 1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?Yes | buy | 1.24K | $0.809 | $1K | Nov 29, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.43K | $0.700 | $1K | Nov 27, 2024 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.62K | $0.560 | $906.74 | Nov 23, 2024 |