Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jun 5, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$225.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jun 5, 2025 UTC

Topic roomECB interest rates

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 5 Jun 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 18 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 18 Apr 2025 to 5 Jun 2025, the highest close was 98.9% on 5 Jun 2025 and the lowest 50.5% on 18 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 77.5% on 19 Apr 2025. $225.67K traded over the market's life.

25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 6, 4:24 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 18 Apr 2025 – 5 Jun 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 Apr 2025	50.5%
5 Jun 2025	98.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	80.64K
EastGermanMarketMaker	No	10.01K
imma80	No	5.31K

10 of 25 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for June 4-5, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by July 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.