Analytics
Resolved Yes on 11 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 56% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 150 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 11 Jun 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.7% on 11 Jun 2026 and the lowest 9% on 26 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 30.5% on 25 Dec 2025. $165.54K traded over the market's life.
104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 12, 2:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 150 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 11 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 56.0% |
| 11 Jun 2026 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Protrad | No | 8K |
| NFspec | No | 1.58K |
| thejoker96 | Yes | 1.01K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-rate-hike-in-2026
| Amber Summit 53DA | No | 985.79 |
| norealtime | No | 948.87 |
| ma762nazemle | No | 928.53 |
| Muffled-Bear | No | 842.15 |
| Fabulous-Sweat | No | 807.44 |
| Speedy-Automation | No | 651.36 |
| Newshound | No | 505 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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