Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 79 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 19 Mar 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.6% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 32.6% on 17 Jan 2026.
194 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 20, 6:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 79 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 19 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 22.5% |
| 19 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 184.8K |
| Limping-Maple | Yes | 16.88K |
| Wilted-Loophole | Yes | 12.89K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-march
| Yes |
| 11.37K |
| babybaby1234 | Yes | 10.26K |
| dante89 | Yes | 10.05K |
| lifeiswonderful | Yes | 4.46K |
| sirbiscuits | Yes | 4.22K |
| Third-Attribute | Yes | 3.34K |
| fedrokk | Yes | 3.1K |
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