Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes | sell | 1.52 | $0.670 | $1.02 | Apr 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 1.53 |
| $0.720 |
| $1.1 |
| Apr 20, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | sell | 4.23 | $0.240 | $1.02 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | buy | 4.23 | $0.260 | $1.1 | Apr 17, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes | sell | 2.82 | $0.680 | $1.92 | Apr 17, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes | buy | 2.82 | $0.390 | $1.1 | Apr 10, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | sell | 3.24 | $0.260 | $0.84 | Apr 4, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 3.24 | $0.340 | $1.1 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?$60k | sell | 2.24 | $0.690 | $1.55 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?$60k | buy | 2.24 | $0.490 | $1.1 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 3.06 | $0.330 | $1.01 | Mar 24, 2026 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes | sell | 3.44 | $0.340 | $1.17 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | sell | 4.07 | $0.380 | $1.55 | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 3.06 | $0.360 | $1.1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | buy | 4.07 | $0.270 | $1.1 | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.319 | $1.1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | sell | 2.5 | $0.331 | $0.83 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.440 | $1.1 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | sell | 2.15 | $0.431 | $0.93 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 2.16 | $0.510 | $1.1 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.69 | $0.640 | $1.08 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.69 | $0.650 | $1.1 | Feb 22, 2026 |
 Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Yes | buy | 4.07 | $0.270 | $1.1 | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.5 | $0.430 | $1.08 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | sell | 4.07 | $0.270 | $1.1 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.440 | $1.1 | Feb 7, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | buy | 4.07 | $0.270 | $1.1 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 3.79 | $0.260 | $0.99 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 3.79 | $0.290 | $1.1 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.55 | $0.500 | $1.28 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.56 | $0.430 | $1.1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 3.93 | $0.240 | $0.94 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 3.93 | $0.280 | $1.1 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.11 | $0.400 | $0.84 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.82 | $0.270 | $0.76 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.12 | $0.520 | $1.1 | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.82 | $0.390 | $1.1 | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.68 | $0.370 | $0.99 | Dec 19, 2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.68 | $0.410 | $1.1 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.82 | $0.380 | $1.07 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.82 | $0.390 | $1.1 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?Yes | sell | 1.59 | $0.670 | $1.07 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?Yes | buy | 1.59 | $0.690 | $1.1 | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.410 | $2.05 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.56 | $0.430 | $1.1 | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.44 | $0.450 | $1.1 | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?Yes | sell | 1.77 | $0.520 | $0.92 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?Yes | buy | 1.77 | $0.620 | $1.1 | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.39 | $0.440 | $1.05 | Oct 26, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.39 | $0.460 | $1.1 | Oct 25, 2025 |