Latest trade
Oct 24, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 12:13 AM UTC.
Analytics
Careful-Misnomer is down $493.75 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-23 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 24, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 25, 12:13 AM UTC.
$4.77 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 40 markets; 80.0% were buys. They run from Oct 24, 2026 UTC to Oct 24, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson? | No | 20 | $0.560 | $10.6 | -$0.6 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?No | sell | 5 | $0.420 | $2.1 | 22m ago |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-23 08:46 UTC
Polymarket public position response
7 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-25 00:13 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-25 00:13 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-23 08:46 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $2K and losing ones cost $1.89K across the latest 50 settled positions. 36% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $315.99 on “Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $364.09 on “Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 24 Oct 2026. It has traded 336 markets. Its open positions are worth $33.69 across 7 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 15 |
| $0.500 |
| $7.35 |
| -$0.15 |
 Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October? | Yes | 20 | $0.356 | $6.54 | -$0.58 |
 Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 26? | Yes | 20 | $0.210 | $4.3 | +$0.1 |
 Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30? | Yes | 14.46 | $0.300 | $3.4 | -$0.94 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | No | 4.13 | $0.390 | $1.47 | -$0.14 |
 Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? | Yes | 0.17 | $0.230 | $0.04 | -$0 |
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on October 26?Yes| buy |
| 20 |
| $0.210 |
| $4.2 |
| 51m ago |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5 | $0.410 | $2.05 | 56m ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?Yes | sell | 5.54 | $0.220 | $1.22 | 1h ago |
 Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?No | sell | 19.99 | $0.410 | $8.2 | 2h ago |
 Will Vance peak at Category 2?No | sell | 3.29 | $0.270 | $0.89 | 3h ago |
| Will Vance peak at Category 2?No | sell | 6.19 | $0.270 | $1.67 | 3h ago |
| Will Vance peak at Category 2?No | sell | 0.52 | $0.270 | $0.14 | 3h ago |
| Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.300 | $6 | 3h ago |
| Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Jalisco Congress election?No | buy | 19.99 | $0.410 | $8.2 | 5h ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?No | buy | 4.13 | $0.390 | $1.61 | 7h ago |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?No | buy | 20 | $0.560 | $11.2 | 7h ago |
| Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.356 | $7.12 | 7h ago |
 Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Yes | sell | 8.97 | $0.320 | $2.87 | 9h ago |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?No | sell | 20 | $0.630 | $12.6 | 9h ago |
| Will Vance peak at Category 2?No | buy | 10 | $0.400 | $4 | 9h ago |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Yes | buy | 8.97 | $0.330 | $2.96 | 10h ago |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?No | buy | 20 | $0.610 | $12.2 | 10h ago |
 Will PP win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes | sell | 8.28 | $0.840 | $6.96 | 10h ago |
| Will PP win the most seats in Cantabria in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes | buy | 8.29 | $0.790 | $6.55 | 11h ago |
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.500 | $7.5 | 11h ago |
| Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?No | sell | 15.53 | $0.830 | $12.89 | 11h ago |
 Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ETDown | buy | 5.05 | $0.980 | $4.95 | 16h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETUp | buy | 5.22 | $0.230 | $1.2 | 16h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETDown | buy | 6.23 | $0.980 | $6.11 | 17h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETUp | buy | 6.23 | $0.260 | $1.62 | 17h ago |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ETUp | buy | 7.38 | $0.920 | $6.79 | 17h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ETDown | buy | 7 | $0.180 | $1.26 | 17h ago |
 Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ETUp | buy | 7.3 | $0.920 | $6.72 | 18h ago |
| Solana Up or Down - October 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ETDown | buy | 7.13 | $0.373 | $2.66 | 18h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETUp | buy | 5 | $0.420 | $2.1 | 18h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ETDown | buy | 5 | $0.970 | $4.85 | 18h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ETDown | buy | 7 | $0.880 | $6.16 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ETUp | buy | 7 | $0.250 | $1.75 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETUp | buy | 9.36 | $0.750 | $7.02 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ETDown | buy | 9 | $0.460 | $4.14 | 19h ago |
| Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ETDown | buy | 7.08 | $0.613 | $4.34 | 19h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ETUp | buy | 0.72 | $0.990 | $0.71 | 19h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:40AM-12:45AM ETDown | buy | 9.68 | $0.400 | $3.87 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ETDown | buy | 11 | $0.810 | $8.91 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ETUp | buy | 11 | $0.430 | $4.73 | 19h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ETUp | buy | 5 | $0.220 | $1.1 | 19h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETDown | buy | 5 | $0.970 | $4.85 | 19h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETDown | buy | 10.21 | $0.900 | $9.19 | 20h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ETUp | buy | 10.21 | $0.470 | $4.8 | 20h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ETDown | buy | 10.23 | $0.860 | $8.8 | 20h ago |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ETUp | buy | 10.17 | $0.590 | $6 | 20h ago |
 XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ETUp | buy | 5 | $0.790 | $3.95 | 20h ago |
| XRP Up or Down - October 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETDown | buy | 5 | $0.950 | $4.75 | 20h ago |
| Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ETDown | buy | 9.3 | $0.900 | $8.37 | 20h ago |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 118 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.