Analytics
Yes is at 47%, up 16 points from 31% when the market opened on 15 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 41.5% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 18 Oct 2026. The current quote, 47%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 22% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 41.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
0-3 points behind is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by...?”, ahead of 3-6 points behind at 19.5%.
$289.81 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.7K since listing. The order book holds $780.18, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 60 trades, $327.42 bought Yes and $251.56 bought No.
The largest Yes position is clazzy1 with 527 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 414.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 11 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| clazzy1 | Yes | 526.66 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 414.07 |
| AJSV | No | 213.53 |
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Michigan Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/abdul-el-sayed-runs-behind-jocelyn-benson-by
| sunnynotbunny |
| Yes |
| 40.34 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 40 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 30 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 28.64 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 21.8 |
| Careful-Misnomer | No | 20 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 19.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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