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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?No | sell | 100 | $0.110 | $11 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 141.66 |
| $0.070 |
| $9.92 |
| Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 99.98 | $0.190 | $19 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.940 | $188 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?No | buy | 273.27 | $0.960 | $262.26 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 18.55 | $0.536 | $9.94 | May 28, 2026 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 100.99 | $0.979 | $98.92 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | sell | 211.99 | $0.045 | $9.56 | May 28, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.270 | $13.5 | May 27, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 60 | $0.033 | $1.98 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 29 | $0.330 | $9.57 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 33 | $0.330 | $10.89 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 8 | $0.810 | $6.48 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 217 | $0.799 | $173.48 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 386 | $0.781 | $301.38 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.925 | $27.75 | May 24, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 51 | $0.046 | $2.35 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 55 | $0.966 | $53.13 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.965 | $48.25 | May 24, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 30.31 | $0.050 | $1.52 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 193 | $0.980 | $189.14 | May 23, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No | buy | 134 | $0.933 | $125.02 | May 21, 2026 |
 Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No | sell | 100 | $0.056 | $5.62 | May 21, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 21.25 | $0.927 | $19.7 | May 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No | buy | 300 | $0.951 | $285.3 | May 21, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 151 | $0.969 | $146.32 | May 21, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 123.85 | $0.961 | $119.04 | May 20, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 61.67 | $0.300 | $18.5 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 100.99 | $0.950 | $95.94 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 200 | $0.979 | $195.8 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 89.58 | $0.966 | $86.5 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 170.52 | $0.021 | $3.58 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 170.52 | $0.030 | $5.12 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Yes | buy | 428 | $0.979 | $419.01 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1460?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.950 | $4.75 | May 19, 2026 |
 Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?No | buy | 105 | $0.990 | $103.95 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will qwen3.5-max-preview have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?No | buy | 25 | $0.990 | $24.75 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will muse-spark have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?No | buy | 23.6 | $0.990 | $23.36 | May 19, 2026 |
| Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on May 23, 2026?No | buy | 43.12 | $0.990 | $42.68 | May 19, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes | buy | 556.39 | $0.929 | $516.99 | May 19, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 51 | $0.080 | $4.08 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Yes | buy | 213.09 | $0.779 | $165.96 | May 16, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 212 | $0.879 | $186.44 | May 16, 2026 |
 Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?No | buy | 10 | $0.520 | $5.2 | May 7, 2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 135 | $0.960 | $129.6 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes | sell | 124.25 | $0.987 | $122.63 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.897 | $35.88 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 132 | $0.897 | $118.4 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 182.88 | $0.893 | $163.31 | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 279.81 | $0.816 | $228.3 | Apr 28, 2026 |