Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 49.5%. Yes opened at 63.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 118 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 19 Jun 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94% on 19 Feb 2026 and the lowest 17% on 12 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 55% on 14 Jun 2026. $6.41K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 20, 6:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 19 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 63.5% |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 49.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| discolado1510 | No | 482.11 |
| megabase | No | 384.29 |
| Rapid Kestrel A206 | No | 102.4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/xai-grok-score-on-frontiermath-benchmark-by-june-30
| No |
| 80 |
| tunku | No | 40 |
| Colala | No | 30 |
| hesure | No | 26.12 |
| Powerless-Kilt | No | 10 |
| tarunier | Yes | 8.79 |
| 16r0ob | No | 5.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
