Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$120.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jun 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 65% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 1 Jun 2026, the highest close was 94% on 11 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 36% on 17 May 2026. $120.45K traded over the market's life.

91 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 1, 8:16 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 1 May 2026 – 1 Jun 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 May 2026	65.0%
1 Jun 2026	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
notsatoshi1	Yes	6.91K
bugseeker	Yes	1.61K
troim	Yes	799.98
flathub	Yes	625.53

10 of 91 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by

Dates