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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.180 | $0.9 | Jan 30, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 5 |
| $0.310 |
| $1.55 |
| Nov 22, 2025 |
 Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?No | sell | 100 | $0.780 | $78 | Nov 15, 2025 |
| Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?No | buy | 100 | $0.740 | $74 | Nov 13, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | sell | 170 | $0.610 | $103.7 | Nov 2, 2025 |
 Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?Yes | buy | 17.89 | $0.210 | $3.76 | Oct 31, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.630 | $44.1 | Oct 31, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.630 | $63 | Oct 31, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Iran before 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.185 | $18.5 | Oct 21, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.470 | $47 | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.420 | $42 | Oct 16, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 130.19 | $0.666 | $86.71 | Oct 5, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 130.19 | $0.615 | $80.07 | Oct 4, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.529 | $105.73 | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Iran before 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.400 | $40 | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.540 | $54 | Sep 28, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced in 2025?No | sell | 17.77 | $0.550 | $9.77 | Sep 27, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.506 | $50.6 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No | sell | 133.33 | $0.959 | $127.86 | Sep 13, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?No | sell | 335.15 | $0.830 | $278.17 | Aug 26, 2025 |
 Will Apple acquire Perplexity before September?No | sell | 115.41 | $0.978 | $112.84 | Aug 23, 2025 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?No | sell | 306.91 | $0.850 | $260.87 | Aug 19, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No | buy | 100 | $0.660 | $66 | Aug 17, 2025 |
| Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No | buy | 33.33 | $0.650 | $21.66 | Aug 17, 2025 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No | sell | 100 | $0.910 | $91 | Aug 14, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 210 | $0.550 | $115.5 | Aug 14, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.460 | $92 | Aug 9, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?No | sell | 30 | $0.170 | $5.1 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?No | buy | 30 | $0.540 | $16.2 | Aug 6, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?No | sell | 225.73 | $0.253 | $57.11 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.414 | $4.14 | Aug 5, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal before September?No | sell | 84 | $0.976 | $81.98 | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No | buy | 100 | $0.760 | $76 | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 120 | $0.470 | $56.4 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 90 | $0.470 | $42.3 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 365.9 | $0.360 | $131.72 | Jul 29, 2025 |
 Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?No | buy | 161.84 | $0.710 | $114.91 | Jul 29, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JulyYes | sell | 446 | $0.973 | $433.84 | Jul 29, 2025 |
 US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?No | sell | 157 | $0.993 | $155.84 | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?No | buy | 175 | $0.640 | $112 | Jul 28, 2025 |
 Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?Yes | sell | 49.99 | $0.787 | $39.34 | Jul 26, 2025 |
 Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?No | sell | 148.5 | $0.370 | $54.95 | Jul 25, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?Yes | sell | 122.31 | $0.870 | $106.41 | Jul 24, 2025 |
 Another Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?No | buy | 173.18 | $0.900 | $155.86 | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.828 | $4.14 | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?No | buy | 118.5 | $0.750 | $88.88 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.796 | $3.98 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?No | buy | 30 | $0.680 | $20.4 | Jul 21, 2025 |
 Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?No | buy | 31.04 | $0.740 | $22.97 | Jul 20, 2025 |
| Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?No | buy | 20 | $0.730 | $14.6 | Jul 20, 2025 |