Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 36.5% on 17 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 17 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 36.5% on 17 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 10.5% on 19 Jul 2025. $113.57K traded over the market's life.
75 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 17 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | 36.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gabyyyyyye | Yes | 1.8K |
| cashiusclay | Yes | 318.34 |
| user-213094o | Yes | 266.31 |
| La.Bruja.Lola. | Yes | 212.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between July 16 10:00 AM ET and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-israel-strike-on-damascus-by-july-31
| Albanezul999 | Yes | 192.86 |
| BULLET | Yes | 185.25 |
| 4pf | Yes | 181.82 |
| dontshowmyname | Yes | 174.72 |
| Thin-Membrane | Yes | 160.38 |
| tumroilz | Yes | 141.08 |
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