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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 29.56 | $0.090 | $2.66 | Dec 11, 2025 |
|
| buy |
| 18 |
| $0.100 |
| $1.8 |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes | sell | 72.89 | $0.010 | $0.73 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | sell | 42.25 | $0.046 | $1.94 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 50 | $0.100 | $5 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?Yes | sell | 142.85 | $0.011 | $1.57 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | sell | 27.77 | $0.033 | $0.92 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionNo | sell | 20 | $0.078 | $1.56 | Dec 11, 2025 |
 Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes | sell | 33.33 | $0.080 | $2.67 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 22.22 | $0.090 | $2 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 111.77 | $0.125 | $14 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionNo | buy | 20 | $0.100 | $2 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes | buy | 72.89 | $0.014 | $1 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.090 | $3 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 27.78 | $0.036 | $1 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 42.25 | $0.071 | $3 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?No | buy | 198.6 | $0.030 | $6 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.014 | $2 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 90.91 | $0.220 | $20 | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 63.16 | $0.190 | $12 | Dec 10, 2025 |
 Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?No | buy | 230.77 | $0.013 | $3 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?No | buy | 83.39 | $0.180 | $15 | Dec 9, 2025 |
 Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?Yes | sell | 32 | $0.016 | $0.51 | Dec 9, 2025 |
 Trump x Putin talk before July?No | buy | 11.38 | $0.400 | $4.55 | Jun 20, 2025 |
 Trump approval >40% on July 1?No | buy | 159.17 | $0.038 | $6 | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.250 | $8 | Jun 13, 2025 |
| Trump approval >40% on July 1?No | buy | 347.83 | $0.046 | $16 | Jun 13, 2025 |
 Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?No | buy | 21.43 | $0.700 | $15 | Jun 13, 2025 |
 Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?No | buy | 21.74 | $0.460 | $10 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?No | buy | 94.74 | $0.190 | $18 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JuneYes | buy | 27.78 | $0.540 | $15 | Jun 3, 2025 |
 Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May?No | buy | 92.55 | $0.378 | $34.97 | May 9, 2025 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?No | buy | 110.01 | $0.091 | $10 | May 9, 2025 |
 China bans US films before July?Yes | buy | 505 | $0.040 | $20 | May 9, 2025 |
 Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?Yes | sell | 513.43 | $0.127 | $64.97 | May 9, 2025 |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?Yes | buy | 513.43 | $0.161 | $82.65 | May 9, 2025 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 97.24 | $0.850 | $82.65 | May 9, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 97.24 | $0.500 | $48.62 | May 1, 2025 |
 Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?Yes | buy | 128.21 | $0.780 | $100 | May 1, 2025 |