Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 45% on 20 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 108 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2025 to 4 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 4 Jan 2026 and the lowest 32.5% on 9 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 46 points up, to 92% on 11 Dec 2025. $168.92K traded over the market's life.
443 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 5, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 20 Sep 2025 – 4 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | 45.0% |
| 4 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PCMTest | No | 10K |
| Favorable-Terminal | No | 4.02K |
| Formal-Jackal | No | 1.72K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025 - GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam - AI wins IMO gold medal - AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark - AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-ai-edition
| No |
| 1.36K |
| dresden77 | No | 1.14K |
| Heavy-Ridge | No | 922.14 |
| dwaynehindman29 | No | 665.22 |
| accessgranted | No | 386.46 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 323 |
| Gluum | No | 302.04 |
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