Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 79% on 10 May 2025. Before it settled, the high was 100% on 2 Jul 2025 and the low 79% on 10 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 93.5% on 14 May 2025. $800.45K traded over the market's life.
148 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 54 points · 10 May 2025 – 2 Jul 2025 · axis zoomed to 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 May 2025 | 79.0% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ChristanRockeyIII | No | 30.46K |
| Hyperliquid.hl | No | 24.88K |
| blackswanscenarios | No | 13.98K |
| mmt1987 | No | 10.64K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is above 40% on July 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than 40% for a “Yes” resolution; an approval of 40% rating will not qualify. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 1 is not published by July 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), the next previous datapoint will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-approval-40-on-july-1
| Tedious-Mind | No | 5.27K |
| kovaa | No | 4.13K |
| kura | No | 3.37K |
| simoneymaker777 | No | 2.94K |
| PAMCOMPUTE | No | 2.52K |
| gg7g | No | 2.09K |
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