Latest trade
Apr 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 10:54 AM UTC.
Analytics
Firm-Tavern has made $2.6 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 5 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-04-23 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Apr 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 10:54 AM UTC.
$11.31 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 11 markets; 82.0% were buys. They run from Mar 4, 2026 UTC to Apr 23, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | 289.23 | $0.139 | $215.47 | +$175.15 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.999 | $99.9 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-04-23 20:27 UTC
Polymarket public position response
4 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 10:54 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 10:54 UTC
polymarket positions
7 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-04-23 20:27 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $37.38 and losing ones cost $2.47 across 5 settled positions. 60% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $28.48 on “Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $1.95 on “Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 23 Apr 2026. It has traded 11 markets. Its open positions are worth $300.8 across 4 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 73.14 |
| $0.657 |
| $67.66 |
| +$19.62 |
 SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | No | 26 | $0.483 | $15.6 | +$3.04 |
 Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 48.2 | $0.214 | $2.07 | -$8.23 |
| sell |
| 498.99 |
| $0.999 |
| $498.49 |
| Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.2 | $0.939 | $2.07 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.939 | $9.39 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 87.8 | $0.939 | $82.44 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 63.26 | $0.940 | $59.46 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 19.99 | $0.940 | $18.79 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 414.75 | $0.940 | $389.86 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
 Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | sell | 54.34 | $0.500 | $27.17 | Apr 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | sell | 51.54 | $0.480 | $24.74 | Mar 18, 2026 UTC |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 14.32 | $0.490 | $7.02 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 37.22 | $0.490 | $18.24 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI?No | buy | 33.34 | $0.480 | $16 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI?No | buy | 5.13 | $0.480 | $2.46 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI?No | buy | 14.16 | $0.480 | $6.8 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | buy | 0.34 | $0.460 | $0.16 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | buy | 4 | $0.460 | $1.84 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | buy | 5 | $0.460 | $2.3 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | buy | 40 | $0.460 | $18.4 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | buy | 5 | $0.460 | $2.3 | Mar 16, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | sell | 230.12 | $0.098 | $22.6 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | sell | 288.49 | $0.596 | $171.8 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.190 | $1.9 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | sell | 17.61 | $0.440 | $7.75 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No | sell | 54.73 | $0.440 | $24.08 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 60.94 | $0.140 | $8.53 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 13.15 | $0.710 | $9.34 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 7.95 | $0.680 | $5.41 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 54.38 | $0.140 | $7.61 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 27.39 | $0.700 | $19.17 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.140 | $14 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 14.8 | $0.140 | $2.07 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 24.49 | $0.680 | $16.65 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?No | buy | 4 | $0.500 | $2 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 274.09 | $0.140 | $38.37 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 69.3 | $0.640 | $44.35 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 23 | $0.680 | $15.64 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 82.74 | $0.650 | $53.78 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 40.44 | $0.760 | $30.73 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?No | buy | 22 | $0.480 | $10.56 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 38.2 | $0.220 | $8.4 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
 Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 160.87 | $0.028 | $4.5 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 55.55 | $0.028 | $1.56 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 1.14 | $0.120 | $0.14 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 24.08 | $0.026 | $0.63 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.120 | $1.08 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 52.38 | $0.580 | $30.38 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.120 | $0.6 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No | buy | 20.79 | $0.580 | $12.06 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No | sell | 97.68 | $0.510 | $49.82 | Mar 4, 2026 UTC |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.