Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 433 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Aug 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53.5% on 27 Jan 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 14 May 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 49.5%; a month before, 49.5%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 53% on 25 Aug 2025.
$719.82K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Generator with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is Grobny with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 52.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 433 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 17.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 49.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count. The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi
| IAmSmarterThanYou |
| No |
| 956.98 |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | Yes | 899.99 |
| sapugnet | Yes | 749.73 |
| Scrawny-Experiment | No | 526.79 |
| Galaad | No | 490 |
| Keen Scout CCDA | No | 408.6 |
| benryann | No | 338.94 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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