Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | buy | 28 | $0.640 | $17.92 | Jun 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 55 |
| $0.350 |
| $19.25 |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.190 | $0.57 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?No | buy | 40 | $0.954 | $38.16 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No | sell | 31 | $0.910 | $28.21 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?No | buy | 10 | $0.880 | $8.8 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | sell | 3.35 | $0.860 | $2.88 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 44 | $0.840 | $36.96 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 39 | $0.860 | $33.54 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | sell | 76 | $0.140 | $10.64 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 76 | $0.150 | $11.4 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | sell | 17 | $0.910 | $15.47 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 17 | $0.910 | $15.47 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes | sell | 43 | $0.090 | $3.87 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 43 | $0.080 | $3.44 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 38 | $0.880 | $33.44 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 69 | $0.490 | $33.81 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 49 | $0.490 | $24.01 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.060 | $2.1 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 39 | $0.939 | $36.62 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 38 | $0.960 | $36.48 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 36 | $0.940 | $33.84 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | sell | 14 | $0.933 | $13.06 | Jun 10, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No | buy | 60 | $0.550 | $33 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No | buy | 74 | $0.450 | $33.3 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 58 | $0.600 | $34.8 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 58 | $0.620 | $35.96 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes | sell | 38 | $0.300 | $11.4 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes | buy | 23 | $0.300 | $6.9 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 22 | $0.510 | $11.22 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 22 | $0.510 | $11.22 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 73 | $0.260 | $18.98 | Jun 2, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 31 | $0.796 | $24.68 | Jun 2, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 34 | $0.987 | $33.56 | Jun 2, 2026 |
 Will Alberta join the US?Yes | sell | 31 | $0.043 | $1.33 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US?Yes | buy | 70 | $0.043 | $3.01 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 34 | $0.974 | $33.12 | May 31, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 34 | $0.978 | $33.25 | May 31, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 35 | $0.964 | $33.74 | May 31, 2026 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No | sell | 8 | $0.620 | $4.96 | May 30, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No | buy | 60 | $0.620 | $37.2 | May 30, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 51 | $0.730 | $37.23 | May 29, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 41 | $0.440 | $18.04 | May 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No | sell | 46 | $0.750 | $34.5 | May 23, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | sell | 52 | $0.720 | $37.44 | May 19, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | buy | 52 | $0.720 | $37.44 | May 19, 2026 |
 Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 38 | $0.984 | $37.39 | May 18, 2026 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 38 | $0.985 | $37.43 | May 18, 2026 |
 Xi Jinping out by June 30?Yes | sell | 17 | $0.010 | $0.17 | May 18, 2026 |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30?Yes | sell | 13 | $0.017 | $0.22 | May 14, 2026 |