Analytics
Resolved Yes on 20 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 11.5%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 228 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 20 Jul 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 8.5% on 12 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 16.5% on 15 Nov 2025. $2.33M traded over the market's life.
582 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 21, 4:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 228 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 20 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 41.5% |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 11.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| D426 | No | 61.52K |
| bullishkirby2 | No | 31.48K |
| aenews2 | No | 25.6K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027
| coali10 | No | 17.96K |
| edisonyang | No | 14.42K |
| skibabiba | No | 14.3K |
| BarakRavid | No | 14.29K |
| abuzzin | No | 10.19K |
| shingoWAKAYAMA | No | 8.15K |
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | No | 7.15K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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