Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 28 | $0.360 | $10.08 | Jun 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 86 |
| $0.360 |
| $30.96 |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes | buy | 126.62 | $0.130 | $16.46 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 143 | $0.079 | $11.3 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 143 | $0.079 | $11.3 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 22 | $0.972 | $21.38 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 122 | $0.140 | $17.08 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.130 | $10.4 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.130 | $10.4 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes | sell | 124 | $0.140 | $17.36 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 161 | $0.140 | $22.54 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes | sell | 51 | $0.190 | $9.69 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes | buy | 169 | $0.190 | $32.11 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | sell | 72 | $0.160 | $11.52 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 147 | $0.160 | $23.52 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.944 | $75.52 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.946 | $75.68 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 48 | $0.260 | $12.48 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 78 | $0.270 | $21.06 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | sell | 85 | $0.180 | $15.3 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes | buy | 85 | $0.170 | $14.45 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 51 | $0.890 | $45.39 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 123 | $0.510 | $62.73 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 97 | $0.510 | $49.47 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 94 | $0.046 | $4.32 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | sell | 74 | $0.954 | $70.6 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | sell | 86 | $0.900 | $77.4 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | buy | 86 | $0.900 | $77.4 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.014 | $0.08 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 134 | $0.014 | $1.88 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 140 | $0.016 | $2.24 | May 26, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | sell | 57 | $0.334 | $19.04 | May 26, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 130 | $0.287 | $37.31 | May 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 123 | $0.560 | $68.88 | May 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 123 | $0.660 | $81.18 | May 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | sell | 142 | $0.031 | $4.4 | May 25, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 142 | $0.032 | $4.54 | May 25, 2026 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 61 | $0.580 | $35.38 | May 25, 2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 145 | $0.570 | $82.65 | May 25, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31?No | sell | 65 | $0.870 | $56.55 | May 24, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | buy | 49 | $0.906 | $44.39 | May 24, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.530 | $10.6 | May 23, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 166 | $0.340 | $56.44 | May 23, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes | sell | 124 | $0.160 | $19.84 | May 23, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes | buy | 124 | $0.170 | $21.08 | May 23, 2026 |
 Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 3 | $0.024 | $0.07 | May 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No | buy | 40 | $0.925 | $37 | May 21, 2026 |
 Will Alberta join the US?Yes | buy | 46 | $0.039 | $1.79 | May 21, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 41 | $0.973 | $39.89 | May 21, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 58 | $0.973 | $56.43 | May 21, 2026 |