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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | No | 0.6 | $0.966 | $0.55 | -$0.03 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 81 | $0.977 | $79.14 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 |
| No |
| 0.48 |
| $0.958 |
| $0.47 |
| +$0.01 |
| sell |
| 95 |
| $0.910 |
| $86.45 |
| Jun 24, 2026 |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes | buy | 95 | $0.910 | $86.45 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | buy | 116 | $0.670 | $77.72 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No | sell | 73 | $0.969 | $70.74 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 88 | $0.969 | $85.27 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 86 | $0.480 | $41.28 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.270 | $1.35 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No | buy | 102 | $0.840 | $85.68 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.090 | $0.9 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 173 | $0.108 | $18.68 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 113 | $0.047 | $5.31 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 86 | $0.320 | $27.52 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 163 | $0.057 | $9.29 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | sell | 90 | $0.370 | $33.3 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | buy | 146 | $0.370 | $54.02 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No | buy | 146 | $0.520 | $75.92 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | sell | 59 | $0.450 | $26.55 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 185 | $0.450 | $83.25 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?Yes | buy | 72 | $0.028 | $2.02 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 107 | $0.780 | $83.46 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 107 | $0.780 | $83.46 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 165 | $0.460 | $75.9 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?No | buy | 91 | $0.901 | $81.99 | Jun 10, 2026 |
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 78 | $0.910 | $70.98 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 78 | $0.890 | $69.42 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30?No | buy | 78 | $0.961 | $74.96 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US?No | sell | 59 | $0.958 | $56.52 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US?No | buy | 87 | $0.958 | $83.35 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?No | buy | 151 | $0.550 | $83.05 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 19 | $0.988 | $18.77 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 77 | $0.980 | $75.46 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31?No | sell | 56 | $0.979 | $54.82 | May 30, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 85 | $0.977 | $83.05 | May 30, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?No | buy | 85 | $0.981 | $83.39 | May 29, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 99 | $0.958 | $94.84 | May 29, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 94 | $0.046 | $4.32 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?No | sell | 73 | $0.991 | $72.34 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?No | buy | 73 | $0.989 | $72.2 | May 28, 2026 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes | buy | 73 | $0.120 | $8.76 | May 28, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.440 | $3.52 | May 27, 2026 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No | buy | 96 | $0.965 | $92.64 | May 27, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | sell | 94 | $0.044 | $4.14 | May 26, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | buy | 124 | $0.047 | $5.83 | May 26, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 188 | $0.230 | $43.24 | May 25, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 188 | $0.230 | $43.24 | May 25, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | buy | 72 | $0.042 | $3.02 | May 24, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No | buy | 28 | $0.980 | $27.44 | May 23, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 38 | $0.680 | $25.84 | May 23, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.670 | $7.37 | May 23, 2026 |