Latest trade
Oct 22, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 2:58 AM UTC.
Analytics
Frayed-Deduce is down $29.64 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-18 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Oct 22, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 2:58 AM UTC.
$4.89 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 26 markets; 58.0% were buys. They run from Aug 20, 2026 UTC to Oct 22, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 5.42 | $0.922 | $5.04 | +$0.04 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Yes | buy | 3.26 | $0.920 | $3 | 1d ago |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-18 07:39 UTC
Polymarket public position response
5 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 02:58 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 02:58 UTC
polymarket positions
52 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-18 07:39 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $64.2 and losing ones cost $53.65 across the latest 50 settled positions. 38% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $15.74 on “Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?” (Yes); the largest loss, $3.48 on “Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance” (Senegal).
Its most recent trade on record was on 22 Oct 2026. It has traded 204 markets. Its open positions are worth $15.86 across 5 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 3.26 |
| $0.920 |
| $3.18 |
| +$0.18 |
 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 2.64 | $0.946 | $2.6 | +$0.1 |
| France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | No | 2.81 | $0.890 | $2.56 | +$0.06 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 2.66 | $0.940 | $2.49 | -$0.01 |
| buy |
| 2.81 |
| $0.890 |
| $2.5 |
| 1d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 2.66 | $0.940 | $2.5 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Yes | buy | 2.64 | $0.946 | $2.5 | 1d ago |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?No | buy | 5.42 | $0.922 | $5 | 1d ago |
 US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?No | sell | 5.02 | $0.992 | $4.98 | Aug 29, 2026 UTC |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 10 | $0.975 | $9.75 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No | buy | 20 | $0.971 | $19.42 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | sell | 20 | $0.900 | $18 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.970 | $9.7 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.955 | $9.55 | Aug 27, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | sell | 20 | $0.870 | $17.4 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | buy | 20 | $0.830 | $16.6 | Aug 26, 2026 UTC |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by August 31?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.930 | $4.67 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.905 | $9.05 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | sell | 20 | $0.890 | $17.8 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | buy | 20 | $0.860 | $17.2 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 9.99 | $0.940 | $9.39 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10.36 | $0.140 | $1.45 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will there be no next Mythos-Class model release by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.710 | $7.1 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.958 | $9.58 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?No | sell | 5 | $0.870 | $4.35 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?No | buy | 5 | $0.845 | $4.23 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 10 | $0.931 | $9.31 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.929 | $9.29 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.944 | $9.44 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Idiots" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No | buy | 2.51 | $0.890 | $2.23 | Aug 25, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?No | buy | 20 | $0.930 | $18.6 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.930 | $9.3 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No | sell | 14.99 | $0.973 | $14.59 | Aug 24, 2026 UTC |
| Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 21.5m?No | sell | 3.12 | $0.820 | $2.56 | Aug 23, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 5 | $0.954 | $4.77 | Aug 23, 2026 UTC |
 US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?Yes | sell | 2.94 | $0.670 | $1.97 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | sell | 12.03 | $0.830 | $9.98 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 21.5m?No | buy | 3.13 | $0.800 | $2.5 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?Yes | buy | 2.94 | $0.340 | $1 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.996 | $4.98 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?No | sell | 2.04 | $0.660 | $1.35 | Aug 22, 2026 UTC |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.985 | $4.93 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.975 | $4.88 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.967 | $4.84 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 3.78 | $0.450 | $1.7 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.79 | $0.660 | $2.5 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.982 | $4.91 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 21.5m?No | sell | 1.61 | $0.940 | $1.51 | Aug 21, 2026 UTC |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?No | buy | 2.04 | $0.490 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 21.5m?No | buy | 1.61 | $0.620 | $1 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | sell | 6 | $0.180 | $1.08 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No | sell | 5 | $0.900 | $4.5 | Aug 20, 2026 UTC |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.