
Yes is at 92.5%, about where the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026, the price held at 92.5%.
It is one of 6 markets under “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?”.
$55.13K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $60.67K since listing. The order book holds $22.26K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 207 trades, $23.92K bought Yes and $2.79K bought No; the largest was a $3.91K buy of Yes at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is CaptainCoinflip with 11.5K shares; the largest No position is hivemindilan with 11.7K. Ten wallets hold 66.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 25 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 6:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026, chart shows 86%–98%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 92.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 92.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hivemindilan | No | 11.68K |
| CaptainCoinflip | Yes | 11.51K |
| justme003 | Yes | 8.32K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
| AlphaBetaGamma2357 |
| No |
| 6.91K |
| LulaVaiPerder | Yes | 5.96K |
| rizotor | No | 3.63K |
| groth | Yes | 3.09K |
| meagainsttheworld | No | 3K |
| nope3050 | No | 2.5K |
| razrin3 | No | 2.4K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963
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