Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 44.44 | $0.810 | $36 | Oct 8, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 33.71 |
| $0.890 |
| $30 |
| Oct 8, 2025 |
 Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?Yes | buy | 64.94 | $0.770 | $50 | Oct 7, 2025 |
 US bank failure by November 30?No | buy | 12.82 | $0.780 | $10 | Oct 7, 2025 |
 Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?Yes | sell | 131.57 | $0.964 | $126.9 | Oct 7, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?No | buy | 19.8 | $0.810 | $16.04 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?No | buy | 16.04 | $0.970 | $15.56 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?Yes | sell | 77.8 | $0.200 | $15.56 | May 13, 2025 |
 Will Cursor support Grok-3 before April?Yes | sell | 10.25 | $0.789 | $8.09 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | sell | 37.57 | $0.880 | $33.06 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Yes | sell | 129.9 | $0.360 | $46.76 | Mar 11, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced before April?No | sell | 258.89 | $0.910 | $235.59 | Mar 4, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced before May?No | sell | 80.64 | $0.640 | $51.61 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31?No | sell | 62.18 | $0.981 | $61 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Kanye launch a coin in February?No | sell | 2.81 | $0.930 | $2.61 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No | sell | 151.06 | $0.860 | $129.91 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?Yes | sell | 55.55 | $0.650 | $36.11 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes | sell | 25.31 | $0.997 | $25.23 | Feb 28, 2025 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?Yes | sell | 83.33 | $0.270 | $22.5 | Feb 26, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No | buy | 151.07 | $0.860 | $129.92 | Feb 20, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Yes | buy | 25.32 | $0.790 | $20 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?Yes | buy | 131.58 | $0.760 | $100 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?Yes | buy | 77.8 | $0.643 | $50 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Cursor support Grok-3 before April?Yes | buy | 10.26 | $0.975 | $10 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced before May?No | buy | 80.65 | $0.620 | $50 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.360 | $20 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.240 | $20 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 129.9 | $0.770 | $100 | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?No | buy | 37.58 | $0.880 | $33.07 | Feb 9, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced before April?No | buy | 234.8 | $0.852 | $200 | Feb 9, 2025 |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February?No | buy | 2.82 | $0.930 | $2.62 | Feb 9, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced before April?No | buy | 24.1 | $0.830 | $20 | Feb 9, 2025 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31?No | buy | 41.72 | $0.973 | $40.59 | Jan 26, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.62 | $0.972 | $1.57 | Jan 12, 2025 |
 Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?No | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?No | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week?No | buy | 15.63 | $0.640 | $10 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Will Biden finish his term?Yes | buy | 20.33 | $0.984 | $20 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?Yes | buy | 20.26 | $0.987 | $20 | Jan 9, 2025 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31?No | buy | 20.47 | $0.977 | $20 | Jan 9, 2025 |
 Will Trump impose tariffs on Japan in his first week?No | buy | 5.38 | $0.930 | $5 | Jan 9, 2025 |