Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.5%. Yes opened at 87% on 6 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 290 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2025 to 22 Oct 2025, the highest close was 98.9% on 20 Oct 2025 and the lowest 62% on 12 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 72% on 17 Jan 2025. $655.54K traded over the market's life.
115 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 12:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 290 points, 6 Jan 2025 – 22 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2025 | 87.0% |
| 22 Oct 2025 | 98.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NAA | No | 3.43K |
| Forthright-Armpit | No | 1.4K |
| Friendjota | No | 1.31K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. national debt surpasses 38 trillion dollars at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current). If treasurydirect.gov/NP_WS/debt/current becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-national-debt-surpass-38-trillion-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.17K |
| gdfgdgdggdfdf | Yes | 648.55 |
| rumpdidump | No | 556.67 |
| dtjs774 | No | 534.71 |
| bwater015 | No | 476.33 |
| Customluger | No | 251.32 |
| S888 | No | 250.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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