Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 6 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 8.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 26 Oct 2026. $15.18K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 11:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 26 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Orange-Whistle-Shoehorn | Yes | 7.91K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.91K |
| Careful-West | Yes | 2.83K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-turnout
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Yes |
| 599.99 |
| balthazar | Yes | 494.02 |
| Coral Falcon EFBD | Yes | 373.11 |
| aldtrader | Yes | 278.94 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 230 |
| haveagoodday | Yes | 209.74 |
| burge146 | Yes | 177.48 |
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