Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.8%. Yes opened at 52% on 17 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 17 Jun 2026 to 21 Jun 2026, the highest close was 52% on 17 Jun 2026 and the lowest 5.3% on 21 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 5.5% on 20 Jun 2026. $30.62K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 22, 4:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 17 Jun 2026 – 21 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jun 2026 | 52.0% |
| 21 Jun 2026 | 5.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| de5nuts | Yes | 2K |
| simpsonsprediction | Yes | 1.04K |
| Golden Comet 32DE | Yes | 233.43 |
| Grokius | Yes | 190.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-vance-shake-hands-with-an-iranian-official-by-june-20-20260615195642306
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 144.99 |
| rshshaprii | Yes | 101.01 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| getfee-s1 | Yes | 73.68 |
| Inchoroi | Yes | 69.8 |
| Kikomonai | Yes | 52.97 |
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