Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 7 Feb 2026.
Across the 239 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 53.5% on 31 Mar 2026 and the lowest 5% on 11 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 9%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 20.5% on 11 Feb 2026.
↑175 ranks sixth of the 11 outcomes in “Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?”. ↑165 leads at 31.5%; ↓150 is at 13%.
$3.38K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $639.44, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is zentrade with 563 shares; the largest No position is Gaujmalietis with 815. Ten wallets hold 93.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 239 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gaujmalietis | No | 815.16 |
| zentrade | Yes | 562.67 |
| Whywix | No | 439.99 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any USD/JPY hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized USD/JPY hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-479
| goask |
| Yes |
| 371.28 |
| Santti | Yes | 204.14 |
| 0xB16B00B5 | No | 104.27 |
| 52adsa | Yes | 51.67 |
| ng6000 | Yes | 40 |
| Keen Falcon 6C9A | Yes | 35 |
| StevenHuo | Yes | 29.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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